Iran's Intervention in Hamas-Israel Conflict: A Geopolitical Powder Keg...

The entire Middle East braces (and tensions heighten) as Iran's involvement escalates the conflict and realigns regional power dynamics. Read to understand why.

Oct 21, 2023

A black flag is raised over Imam Reza shrine in Iran for first time in history. Here’s the symbolism in Islamic historic tradition:

"When the black flags come from Khorasan (Persia/Central Asia) go to them, even if you have to crawl on snow, among them is the Caliph of Allah, the Mahdi." (Call to Jihad??)

Iran has historically supported Hamas both financially and militarily. They have ideological similarities, sharing a common enemy in Israel and a common basis in political Islam.

From a geopolitical standpoint, Iran's involvement in the conflict is motivated by several factors:

Strategic Influence: Iran’s been working to increase its influence in the Middle East, a process that could be sped up if they were to intervene on behalf of Hamas. This would also help them to counterbalance the influence of Saudi Arabia and Israel in the region.
Proxy War: Iran and Israel have long been in a state of indirect conflict, often fighting through proxies. The current conflict provides an opportunity for Iran to continue this proxy war and put immense pressure on Israel.
Nuclear Negotiations: Iran is currently in negotiations with the United States and other world powers about its nuclear program. By getting involved in the conflict, Iran could increase its bargaining power.
Domestic Politics: Domestically, supporting Hamas and standing up to Israel is a popular move that bolsters the Iranian regime’s legitimacy with its citizens.
Religious Ideology: Iran, as a predominantly Shiite country, feels an obligation to protect and support Hamas, a Sunni group, against Israel, as they both follow Islam, albeit with certain doctrinal differences.

However, Iran's likely direct intervention will escalate the situation and involve other Middle Eastern countries due to alliances and opposing interests.

For example, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, which are predominantly Sunni, are wary of Iran's growing influence in the region and could potentially intervene to counterbalance Iran's power.

Similarly, countries like Egypt and Jordan, which have peace treaties with Israel, could be drawn into the conflict.

Lastly, any direct Iranian intervention will almost certainly draw a response from the U.S. and other Western powers due to their strategic alliance with Israel.

This is a highly complex and dynamic scenario. Given the volatile nature of Middle East politics, the consequences of such interventions are unpredictable and will be far-reaching.

Iran's Support for Hamas and Hezbollah: Exploring the Reasons Behind Iran's Backing

Historical and Ideological Ties

Hezbollah, founded in 1982 during Lebanon's civil war, emerged as a resistance movement against Israeli forces and as a vehicle to spread Iran's Islamic Revolution.

On the other hand, Hamas, established in 1987 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, quickly embraced armed resistance and called for the annihilation of Israel.

While Hezbollah has enjoyed longstanding backing from Iran to expand Iranian influence in Arab states, Hamas has increasingly received support from Iran but operates with more autonomy.

Iran's historical and ideological ties with both Hezbollah and Hamas play a significant role in its support for these groups.

Iran sees itself as the leader of the Islamic world and aims to export its revolutionary ideals to other countries.

Hezbollah's establishment during Lebanon's civil war resonated with Iran's revolutionary spirit… and the group's resistance against Israeli forces aligned with Iran's goal of challenging Western influence in the Middle East. Similarly, Hamas's stance on armed resistance and its rejection of Israel's right to exist appealed to Iran's anti-Israel sentiments. Iran's support for these groups is a manifestation of its commitment to spreading its revolutionary ideals and confronting Israel.

Geopolitical Motivations: Expanding Influence and Disrupting Normalization

Iran's support for Hezbollah aims to extend its influence in Arab states and push western powers out of the Middle East, while vehemently rejecting Israel's right to exist.

By backing Hezbollah, Iran seeks to challenge the established order in the region and counter the influence of Western powers such as the United States and its allies. The presence of Hezbollah in Lebanon gives Iran a proxy through which it can exert influence and control over the country, as Hezbollah holds significant power in Lebanon and has influence over border crossings and political appointments.

In the case of Hamas, Iran's support serves the purpose of weakening Israel and disrupting the Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement, preventing the mobilization of regional forces against Iran.

Iran sees the normalization agreement as a threat to its regional ambitions and, by supporting Hamas, it aims to undermine the agreement and prevent a unified front against its interests in the region. Through its support for both Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran seeks to challenge Western influence and control in the Middle East.

Common Enemies and Shared Goals: Opposing Israel and Fighting for Palestine

Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah share a common enemy in Israel and seek to weaken it through any means possible. Their shared goals include the desire to liberate Palestine from Israeli occupation and reject Western intervention in the Middle East. Iran's support for these groups is driven by its commitment to the Palestinian cause and its opposition to Israel.

One example of their shared goals and opposition to Israel can be seen in the conflicts between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah.

When Israel launched military operations in Gaza in 2008 and 2014, Hamas fired rockets into Israel in response, leading to significant escalations in the conflict. Similarly, Hezbollah's involvement in the current conflict between Israel and Hamas will have significant implications, almost certainly leading to a regional war. Iran's support for Hamas and Hezbollah fuels the ongoing proxy war between Israel and Iran, further exacerbating tensions in the region.

Proxy Warfare and Regional Influence

Iran utilizes proxy warfare as a strategy to project power and influence in the region, supporting groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. By backing these groups, Iran enhances its overall regional influence and challenges its adversaries.

Proxy warfare allows Iran to pursue its interests without direct involvement… reducing the risk of direct confrontation with its adversaries while still exerting massive influence in the region.

An example of Iran's successful proxy warfare strategy can be seen in Hezbollah's activities in Lebanon. Hezbollah's significant power and influence in Lebanon enable Iran to extend its regional influence and challenge Western powers. Through its support for Hezbollah, Iran can indirectly control border crossings and political appointments, further bolstering its “shadow power'“ and challenging its adversaries in the region.

Impact on Israel and the Region

Iran's support for Hamas and Hezbollah poses a direct threat to Israel's security, with Hezbollah possessing a larger arsenal of rockets compared to Hamas. If Hezbollah is activated by Iran, its full involvement will certainly change the course of the conflict and lead to a regional war. The conflict between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah has the potential to spill over into Lebanon, further destabilizing the region.

This on again-off again, smoldering war between Israel and Hamas and/or Hezbollah not only poses a threat to Israel's security but also has significant implications for the wider region. The continuous cycle of violence and the threat of wider war have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and international security (think on-ramp to World War III).

International Responses and Efforts

Western countries, including the U.S., designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, with the E.U. classifying its military wing as such.

The U.S. and other countries are actively working to deter Hezbollah and Iran from entering the conflict, deploying military assets to the region. International responses and efforts aim to prevent Hezbollah's full engagement and mitigate the risk of a wider regional conflict.

Efforts to address Iran's support for Hamas and Hezbollah have been ongoing, with Western countries taking measures to counteract their influence. The designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization by Western countries reflects their commitment to combating Iran's proxy activities in the region. The deployment of military assets and international cooperation are essential in deterring Hezbollah and Iran from escalating the conflict and minimizing the risk of setting off a major, broader war.

Summary

Iran's support for Hamas and Hezbollah is rooted in historical and ideological ties, geopolitical motivations, and shared goals. By backing these groups, Iran aims to expand its influence, challenge Western control, and weaken Israel. The ongoing conflict between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah carries significant implications for the region and international security. Efforts are being made to prevent further escalation and mitigate the risk associated with Hezbollah's potential engagement. It’s crucial for international actors to continue their efforts in addressing Iran's support for these groups and finding peaceful solutions to the conflicts in the Middle East.

Editor’s Note: I’m not hopeful…

Biden’s Address to Nation: Shameful Hypocrisy a Final Nail in America’s Coffin

Here’s a superb overview and an amazing 3-D SkyView of the military flight action over Israel and elsewhere as we stand on the doorstep to World War III. Thanks to reader Paul for sharing this next video link. It well worth watching: